My bracket projections:

So of course, as soon as I mention that things were going somewhat smoothly, things fall apart. Last night did not exactly help alleviate bracket confusion on bubble teams. In a way it's fitting that Utah State got the auto-bid out of the Big West, since they got screwed last year by the committee, but their win last night absolutely removes one at large spot that would have been reserved for a bubble team. Buffalo losing a stomach puncher last night in the MAC championship did not help matters either. Buffalo has a better resume than Ohio and will actually challenge for an at large spot, whereas Ohio would not have. These factors certainly make the bubble much less clear than it was as late as last evening. With that said, here are my bracket projections (again with the assumption that late games today do not matter...that is, a Big 12 tourney championship for Oklahoma State and a loss by Kentucky might be enough to warrant swapping of seeds but the Big 12 tourney championship is too late in the afternoon to influence the committee.)

Chicago Regional (Note: Chicago vs Albuquerque; Syracuse vs Austin in final four):

1. Illinois
16. Montana

8. Charlotte
9. UCLA

5. Villanova
12. Old Dominion

4. Florida
13. Vermont

6. Pittsburgh
11. UAB

3. Arizona
14. Niagara

7. Georgia Tech
10. UTEP

2. Oklahoma State
15. Winthrop

Albuquerque:

1. Kentucky
16. Farleigh Dickinson

8. Iowa State
9. Nevada

5. Michigan State
12. Ohio

4. Connecticut
13. Wisconsin-Milwaukee

6. Texas Tech
11. Creighton

3. Boston College
14. Louisiana- Lafayette

7. Cincinnati
10. Minnesota

2. Wake Forest
15. SE Louisiana (Note: updated at 3:00 PM with game result)

Syracuse:

1. North Carolina
16. play in game...Oakland/Alabama A&M

8. Stanford
9. Texas

5. Alabama
12. George Washington

4. Gonzaga
13. Penn

6. Wisconsin
11. New Mexico

3. Kansas
14. Central Florida

7. West Virginia
10. Iowa

2. Washington
15. Eastern Kentucky

Austin:

1. Duke
16. Delaware State

8. Southern Illinois
9. Mississippi State

5. Utah
12. Notre Dame

4. Oklahoma
13. Bucknell

6. LSU
11. St Mary's

3. Syracuse
14. Utah State

7. Pacific
10. North Carolina State

2. Louisville
15. Chattanooga

Bracket notes: Syracuse cannot play in the Syracuse regional, Texas cannot play in the Austin regional, and New Mexico cannot play in the Albuquerque regional.

Last four in:
Iowa
St Mary's
UAB
Notre Dame

just missed the cut:
Depaul
Buffalo
Northern Iowa

At the last minute, I decided to replace Depaul with Notre Dame, mainly because Notre Dame, while inconsistent, has shown they can play with and beat very good teams and they finished above .500 in what I consider the toughest conference (top to bottom) in college basketball this season. I'd be surprised if the MAC got two teams, given that there were 6 teams that finished 11-7 in conference play, 1 12-6 team, and 2 10-8 teams; there's just not enough separation there and no big marquee non-conference "scalps". We'll revisit this after the selection show.