Once again, I'm going to take a completely blind stab at the sub regional sites each protected seed (1-4) will be placed in by the ever omnipresent committee. I'm also going to preface everything by stating that the field (top to bottom) appears to be a little stronger than it was last year, but that the bubble is very very weak, which makes projecting the last few at large teams quite difficult. As an added bonus, there's also a chance that two major conference programs with losing regular season records could win the auto bid this afternoon (Illinois - Big Ten and Georgia - SEC). I'll revisit this with some explanatory comments and observations after listing my projections.
First the number one seeds (which are ranked from 1 to 4 overall):
1: North Carolina (East Regional)
2: Memphis (South Regional)
3: UCLA (West Regional)
4: Kansas (Midwest Regional)
which means the East champ meets the Midwest champ in one semifinal and the West champ meets the South champ in the other. I truly believe that Tennessee is the 4th most deserving team in the hunt for a #1 seed, but the committee traditionally loves a conference tourney winner. As of now, I'm projecting Kansas as the Big 12 champion over Texas, which is why they get the 4th #1. If Texas wins, they will essentially switch spots with Kansas. UPDATE 4:30 PM: Kansas won. Less work for me. w00t.
Here are the matchups in the each region. The full bracket is posted below.
East (Charlotte):
Raleigh
1: North Carolina
16: Play in (Coppin State vs. Mount St Mary's)
8: Oklahoma
9: Saint Mary's
Denver
5: Purdue
12: Oregon
4: Notre Dame
13: Oral Roberts
Omaha
6: Washington State
11: Saint Joseph's
3: Wisconsin
14: Boise State
Birmingham
7: Gonzaga
10: Kentucky
2: Georgetown
15: American
Midwest (Detroit):
Omaha
1: Kansas
16: Maryland Baltimore Co.
8: BYU
9: Miami
Washington DC
5: Drake
12: George Mason
4: UConn
13: Georgia
Denver
6: Marquette
11: Baylor
3: Xavier
14: Austin Peay
Birmingham
7: USC
10: Kent State
2: Tennessee
15: Winthrop
South (Houston):
Little Rock
1: Memphis
16: Mississippi Valley State
8: Davidson
9: Kansas State
Washington DC
5: Indiana
12: Western Kentucky
4: Pittsburgh
13: Cornell
Anaheim
6: Butler
11: Temple
3: Stanford
14: San Diego
Raleigh
7: Arkansas
10: UNLV
2: Duke
15: Portland State
West (Phoenix):
Anaheim
1: UCLA
16: Texas-Arlington
8: West Virginia
9: Texas A&M
Tampa
5: Vanderbilt
12: Illinois State
4: Clemson
13: Siena
Tampa
6: Michigan State
11: South Alabama
3: Louisville
14: Belmont
Little Rock
7: Mississippi State
10: Arizona
2: Texas
15: Cal State Fullerton
Last Four In:
St Joseph's
Oregon
Illinois State
Last Four Out:
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Villanova
VCU
A few comments:
As an admitted Ohio State homer, I'm leaving them in the field as the last team in. This, of course, is contrary to most logic and reason so don't be surpised when either Va tech or Nova gets in instead.
Jesse Jackson doesn't like it when the MEAC and SWAC champions play in the play-in game, so if politics come into play look for Mount St Mary's to take the place of Miss Valley State. UPDATE 4:30 PM: The delightfully politically correct committee anounced that MSM would indeed be in the play in game. The projection has been updated to reflect this.
Placement Restrictions: Georgetown, as the host school, can't play in the DC subregional. BYU needs to be placed in a Thursday/Saturday subregional because they are Mormon.
The committee may keep the Big 12 runner up in the South regional so they can play in Houston. I personally don't think this is fair to the #1 seed, Memphis, especially if the #2 is Texas; this is why I didn't include this in the projection, although it will likely happen.
I'm posting this before the SEC and Big Ten Championship games, but I have "contingency" brackets prepared in the event of a major upset. I will update after the games are over but before the selection show. Clearly an unexpected autobid takes away an at large from the last team in, my beloved buckeyes. UPDATE 4:30 PM: Oh Georgia, you broke my heart. Three wins in 36 hours is incredible, however. Projection has been updated.