THE Kevin P. Davis Official 2008 NCAA Bracket Projection

Once again, I'm going to take a completely blind stab at the sub regional sites each protected seed (1-4) will be placed in by the ever omnipresent committee. I'm also going to preface everything by stating that the field (top to bottom) appears to be a little stronger than it was last year, but that the bubble is very very weak, which makes projecting the last few at large teams quite difficult. As an added bonus, there's also a chance that two major conference programs with losing regular season records could win the auto bid this afternoon (Illinois - Big Ten and Georgia - SEC). I'll revisit this with some explanatory comments and observations after listing my projections.




First the number one seeds (which are ranked from 1 to 4 overall):



1: North Carolina (East Regional)
2: Memphis (South Regional)
3: UCLA (West Regional)
4: Kansas (Midwest Regional)

which means the East champ meets the Midwest champ in one semifinal and the West champ meets the South champ in the other. I truly believe that Tennessee is the 4th most deserving team in the hunt for a #1 seed, but the committee traditionally loves a conference tourney winner. As of now, I'm projecting Kansas as the Big 12 champion over Texas, which is why they get the 4th #1. If Texas wins, they will essentially switch spots with Kansas. UPDATE 4:30 PM: Kansas won. Less work for me. w00t.


Here are the matchups in the each region. The full bracket is posted below.

East (Charlotte):

Raleigh

1: North Carolina
16: Play in (Coppin State vs. Mount St Mary's)

8: Oklahoma
9: Saint Mary's

Denver

5: Purdue
12: Oregon

4: Notre Dame
13: Oral Roberts

Omaha

6: Washington State
11: Saint Joseph's

3: Wisconsin
14: Boise State

Birmingham

7: Gonzaga
10: Kentucky

2: Georgetown
15: American

Midwest (Detroit):

Omaha

1: Kansas
16: Maryland Baltimore Co.

8: BYU
9: Miami

Washington DC

5: Drake
12: George Mason

4: UConn
13: Georgia

Denver

6: Marquette
11: Baylor

3: Xavier
14: Austin Peay

Birmingham

7: USC
10: Kent State

2: Tennessee
15: Winthrop

South (Houston):

Little Rock

1: Memphis
16: Mississippi Valley State

8: Davidson
9: Kansas State

Washington DC

5: Indiana
12: Western Kentucky

4: Pittsburgh
13: Cornell

Anaheim

6: Butler
11: Temple

3: Stanford
14: San Diego

Raleigh

7: Arkansas
10: UNLV

2: Duke
15: Portland State

West (Phoenix):

Anaheim

1: UCLA
16: Texas-Arlington

8: West Virginia
9: Texas A&M

Tampa

5: Vanderbilt
12: Illinois State

4: Clemson
13: Siena

Tampa

6: Michigan State
11: South Alabama

3: Louisville
14: Belmont

Little Rock

7: Mississippi State
10: Arizona

2: Texas
15: Cal State Fullerton

Last Four In:

South Alabama
St Joseph's
Oregon
Illinois State

Last Four Out:
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Villanova
VCU


A few comments:

As an admitted Ohio State homer, I'm leaving them in the field as the last team in. This, of course, is contrary to most logic and reason so don't be surpised when either Va tech or Nova gets in instead.

Jesse Jackson doesn't like it when the MEAC and SWAC champions play in the play-in game, so if politics come into play look for Mount St Mary's to take the place of Miss Valley State. UPDATE 4:30 PM: The delightfully politically correct committee anounced that MSM would indeed be in the play in game. The projection has been updated to reflect this.

Placement Restrictions: Georgetown, as the host school, can't play in the DC subregional. BYU needs to be placed in a Thursday/Saturday subregional because they are Mormon.

The committee may keep the Big 12 runner up in the South regional so they can play in Houston. I personally don't think this is fair to the #1 seed, Memphis, especially if the #2 is Texas; this is why I didn't include this in the projection, although it will likely happen.

I'm posting this before the SEC and Big Ten Championship games, but I have "contingency" brackets prepared in the event of a major upset. I will update after the games are over but before the selection show. Clearly an unexpected autobid takes away an at large from the last team in, my beloved buckeyes. UPDATE 4:30 PM: Oh Georgia, you broke my heart. Three wins in 36 hours is incredible, however. Projection has been updated.

THE Kevin P. Davis Official 2007 NCAA Bracket Projection

So I've decided to try something new this year and include pods as well as regions. I'm pretty sure it'll blow up in my face, but since when I have I ever turned down a bad idea? I also want to say that I think this might be the most uninspiring tournament field I've ever seen. Practically every team seeded from 9 on down is indistinguishible from any other; this also includes the supposed "snubs". So basically the bubble is as fluid as I've ever seen it and I really wouldn't be surprised if we see some big surprises later today on the selection show.

First the number one seeds (which are ranked from 1 to 4 overall):

1: THE Ohio State University (Midwest Regional)
2: North Carolina (East Regional)
3: UCLA (West Regional)
4: Kansas (South Regional)

which means the Midwest champ meets the south champ in one semifinal and the west champ meets the east champ in the other. Um...so this could get completely screwed up if texas wins the Big 12 tourney and Wisconsin (God forbid) wins the big ten tourney, but I'm on a limited time frame here.


Here are the matchups in the each region. The full bracket is posted below.

Midwest (St. Louis):

Lexington

1: THE Ohio State University
16: North Texas

8: Arizona
9: Xavier

Winston-Salem

5: Notre Dame
12: New Mexico State

4: Virginia Tech
13: Holy Cross

Columbus

6: Boston College
11: Air Force

3: Texas A&M
14: Miami OH

New Orleans

7: Butler
10: Syracuse

2: Memphis
15: Texas A&M University- Corpus Christi

South (San Antonio):

Chicago

1: Kansas
16: Play in winner (Florida A&M/Jackson State)

8: Vanderbilt
9: Michigan St

Lexington

5: Maryland
12: Stanford

4: Louisville
13: Pennsylvania

Spokane

6: UNLV
11: VCU

3: Oregon
14: Long Beach

New Orleans:

7: Creighton
10: Georgia Tech

2: Florida
15: Niagara

East (East Rutherford):

Winston-Salem

1: North Carolina
16: Central Connecticut

8: Villanova
9: Texas Tech

Sacramento

5: Nevada
12: Davidson

4: Washington State
13: George Washington

Columbus

6: Tennessee
11: Illinois

3: Southern Illinois
14: Oral Roberts

Buffalo

7: USC
10: Indiana

2: Georgetown
15: Eastern Kentucky

West (San Jose):

Sacramento

1: UCLA
16: Weber State

8: BYU
9: Kentucky

Spokane

5: Marquette
12: Gonzaga

4: Texas
13: Wright State

Buffalo

6: Virginia
11: Old Dominion

3: Pittsburgh
14: Albany

Chicago

7: Duke
10: Winthrop

2: Wisconsin
15: Belmont






Last four in:
Air Force
Illinois
Old Dominion
Stanford

Last four out:
Drexel
Kansas State
Purdue
West Virginia

Woohoo!! Minneapolis!!!

So my beloved Buckeyes have a chance at making it to Minneapolis after all. Kudos to the committee for that; unfortunately its about the only thing they did correctly. I really do not understand how they decided that Utah State and Air Force were more deserving than Cincinnati. I love underdogs and "mid-majors" as much as anybody else, but even I think thats a stretch. I also think that the committee deliberately went out of their way to exclude Missouri St because they had such a good rpi, almost like a nice "fuck you" to everyone, like myself, who tries to predict what they should do.

Speaking of fuck yous, George Washington received a massive one today. "Nice job going 26-2. Here's an eight seed. Go fuck yourself." I think Tennessee as a 2 is a stretch as well, and I really do not understand how George Mason could possibly be more deserving than Hofstra.

Oh well. Time to tally up the results and compare with the other "experts"

The Official 2006 Bracket Projection


Washington D.C.

1. Connecticut
16. Play in game (Southern vs. Hampton)

8. Wisconsin
9. Kentucky

5. Washington
12. Texas A&M

4. Florida
13. South Alabama

6. West Virginia
11. UAB

3. North Carolina
14. Northwestern St

7. Nevada
10. Cincinnati

2. Illinois
15. Belmont


Oakland

1. Memphis
16. Davidson

8. Arkansas
9. Arizona

5. Syracuse
12. Hofstra

4. Boston College
13. Xavier

6. Oklahoma
11. San Diego St

3. UCLA
14. Montana

7. Marquette
10. Bucknell

2. THE Ohio State University
15. Pennsylvania


Atlanta

1. Duke
16. Albany

8. California
9. Southern Illinois

5. Kansas
12. UW-Milwaukee

4. Pittsburgh
13. Kent State

6. Michigan St
11. Bradley

3. LSU
14. Pacific

7. Indiana
10. Northern Iowa

2. Gonzaga
15. Winthrop


Minneapolis

1. Villanova
16. Monmouth

8. Wichita St
9. UNC-Wilmington

5. George Washington
12. Seton Hall

4. Tennessee
13. Murray St

6. Georgetown
11. Missouri St

3. Iowa
14. Iona

7. NC State
10. Alabama

2. Texas
15. Oral Roberts


Notes:
- The late games (Big Ten, Big 12 Championships) should not really affect seeding.
- For whatever reason the Southland Conference decides to hold their championship on the same day as the big boys, which kinda pisses me off cause it holds up the bracket. Northwestern St is just the projected winner for now (UPDATE 3:18 PM: They did win, so its official.)
- Since I'll be at the Minneapolis regional this year, my heart really wants Ohio State there, but my head doesn't seem to agree.
- Speaking of Ohio State: the competition for the 4th #1 seed is pretty fierce. The buckeyes won the nation's #1 conference (check the RPI), but Memphis's non conference schedule and performance is just too impressive to overcome
- Gerry McNamara's successful fusion of Tyus Edney, Bryce Drew, and Michael Jordan this week paid off big time for the 'Cuse
- I like my DC region; lots of name firepower
- I think the committee should match up Iowa and Iona in the 1st round
- I think the field is pretty solid, but my last team in (Hofstra) is certainly debatable. There are about five teams with essentially equal merit gunning for that spot


Last four in:
Missouri St
Texas A&M
Seton Hall
Hofstra

Just Missed the cut:
Michigan (lost 7 of 9 to end season)
Florida St (one big win just isnt enough)
Creighton (MVC getting 6 teams? Highly doubtful)
George Mason (Lost twice to Hofstra)

Kevin P. Davis Bracketology Returns!

Try to contain your excitement...

Fallout

Overall, I'd say the committee did an excellent job this year. I'm truly impressed. I still don't think Northern Iowa really did enough to be a tourney team, but its hard to argue against a 20 win mid major team when the next best option is a team that finished 4-6 in its last 10 games. By the way, the committee really looked down on teams who ended poorly. UCLA, Pittsburgh, Kansas, and the non-inclusion of Notre Dame are great examples of this. Louisville is seeded too low and Connecticut too high, but I can't think of anything else that really stood out to me.

And yet again, I proved to be just as good as the resident bracketologists for the big guys
Me: 64 right, 36 seeds correct
Lunardi (ESPN): 64, 38 (only because he did a last minute update to account for today's games, and the somewhat expected move of Washington to a #1 seed after Kentucky's blowout loss)
Mandel (SI): 65, 34
Meija (cbsports): 65, 36
Lazurus (foxsports): 64, 33

Just for kicks we'll throw in Andy Katz (63 out of 65, didnt seed) and Dickie V, who somehow managed to have Depaul as both a last team in and a last team out and projected (surprise, surprise) 3 ACC teams to get #1 seeds...he did get 64 right though.

As always, the lesson is that I never spend my time doing anything productive. All these other guys get paid to do this stuff; I guess they have the last laugh.

My bracket projections:

So of course, as soon as I mention that things were going somewhat smoothly, things fall apart. Last night did not exactly help alleviate bracket confusion on bubble teams. In a way it's fitting that Utah State got the auto-bid out of the Big West, since they got screwed last year by the committee, but their win last night absolutely removes one at large spot that would have been reserved for a bubble team. Buffalo losing a stomach puncher last night in the MAC championship did not help matters either. Buffalo has a better resume than Ohio and will actually challenge for an at large spot, whereas Ohio would not have. These factors certainly make the bubble much less clear than it was as late as last evening. With that said, here are my bracket projections (again with the assumption that late games today do not matter...that is, a Big 12 tourney championship for Oklahoma State and a loss by Kentucky might be enough to warrant swapping of seeds but the Big 12 tourney championship is too late in the afternoon to influence the committee.)

Chicago Regional (Note: Chicago vs Albuquerque; Syracuse vs Austin in final four):

1. Illinois
16. Montana

8. Charlotte
9. UCLA

5. Villanova
12. Old Dominion

4. Florida
13. Vermont

6. Pittsburgh
11. UAB

3. Arizona
14. Niagara

7. Georgia Tech
10. UTEP

2. Oklahoma State
15. Winthrop

Albuquerque:

1. Kentucky
16. Farleigh Dickinson

8. Iowa State
9. Nevada

5. Michigan State
12. Ohio

4. Connecticut
13. Wisconsin-Milwaukee

6. Texas Tech
11. Creighton

3. Boston College
14. Louisiana- Lafayette

7. Cincinnati
10. Minnesota

2. Wake Forest
15. SE Louisiana (Note: updated at 3:00 PM with game result)

Syracuse:

1. North Carolina
16. play in game...Oakland/Alabama A&M

8. Stanford
9. Texas

5. Alabama
12. George Washington

4. Gonzaga
13. Penn

6. Wisconsin
11. New Mexico

3. Kansas
14. Central Florida

7. West Virginia
10. Iowa

2. Washington
15. Eastern Kentucky

Austin:

1. Duke
16. Delaware State

8. Southern Illinois
9. Mississippi State

5. Utah
12. Notre Dame

4. Oklahoma
13. Bucknell

6. LSU
11. St Mary's

3. Syracuse
14. Utah State

7. Pacific
10. North Carolina State

2. Louisville
15. Chattanooga

Bracket notes: Syracuse cannot play in the Syracuse regional, Texas cannot play in the Austin regional, and New Mexico cannot play in the Albuquerque regional.

Last four in:
Iowa
St Mary's
UAB
Notre Dame

just missed the cut:
Depaul
Buffalo
Northern Iowa

At the last minute, I decided to replace Depaul with Notre Dame, mainly because Notre Dame, while inconsistent, has shown they can play with and beat very good teams and they finished above .500 in what I consider the toughest conference (top to bottom) in college basketball this season. I'd be surprised if the MAC got two teams, given that there were 6 teams that finished 11-7 in conference play, 1 12-6 team, and 2 10-8 teams; there's just not enough separation there and no big marquee non-conference "scalps". We'll revisit this after the selection show.

The Madness Returns

Well folks, it's time for another wonderful edition of Kevin P. O'davis's Bracketology. It's been a pretty exciting last few days in college hoops, with seemingly nobody wanting to be a #1 seed in the tourney. First Wake goes down, then UNC, Illinois played like absolute crap today against Minnesota, and Kentucky barely escapes. On the other end of the spectrum, the bubble teams are actually separating themselves pretty nicely in my opinion, pending the results of tonight's championship games. Check back tomorrow for my NCAA bracket predicition. Duke sucks.

The Ten Best Songs You've Never Heard:

(in no particular order)

1. "Baseball" - Ozma
2. "Beautiful Girl" - Last Week
3. "Apple Blossom" - The White Stripes
4. "Dirty Nursery Rhymes" - 2 Live Crew
5. "Here We Go Again" - Riddlin Kids
6. "Get Over It" - OK Go
7. "Summer Wind was Always Our Song" - The Ataris
8. "Would You Be Willing?" - Dog's Eye View
9. "See You in Hell" - Monster Magnet
10. "Tequila" - A.L.T. and the Lost Civilization

The Ten Best Songs You May Have Heard:

1. "Open Road Song" - Eve 6
2. "It Ain't Me Babe" - The Turtles
3. "I Will be Hating You for Christmas" - Everclear
4. "Hellbound" - Eminem feat. J-Black and Masta Ace
5. "Hear You Me" - Jimmy Eat World
6. "There Is" - Boxcar Racer
7. "Fightstarter Karaoke" - Dropkick Murphys
8. "Golf Shirt" - Nerf Herder
9. "Take this Heart" - Richard Marx
10. "Smash" - The Offspring

Just needed something to do while dinner was in the oven. Really though, these are all good songs...you should listen to them.